New Home Sales Up 12.7% From Last Year

According to the latest New Residential Sales Report from the Census Bureau, new construction sales in August were up 3.5% from July and 12.7% from last year! This marks the second consecutive month with double-digit year-over-year growth (12.8% in July).

The report also showed that builders have ramped up construction with an increase in new construction starts and completions. The summer months are often a busy time for builders as they capitalize on the warmer weather to be able to finish projects.

Below is a table showing the change in starts, completions, and sales from last August.

Other notable news from the report is that the percentage of new construction sales in the $200-$299k range has continued to break away from the $300-$399k range.

This shows that builders are starting to build lower-priced homes that will help alleviate some of the inventory challenges in the starter and trade-up home categories. The chart below shows the full breakdown.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers?

If you are thinking of buying or selling in today’s market, you no doubt have heard that there is a shortage of existing homes for sale which has been driving home prices up across the country. The additional new construction coming to the market could help alleviate this shortage, but we are still not back up to pre-crisis levels.

Buying a Home is Cheaper than Renting in 38 States! [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some Highlights:

• According to a study by GOBankingRates, it is cheaper to buy a home than rent in 38 states across the country.
• In six states the difference between buying & renting would account for less than a $50 monthly difference, leaving the choice up to the individual family.
• Nationwide, it is now 26.3% cheaper to buy.

.Are We About to Enter a Buyers’ Market?

Home sales are below last year’s levels, home values are appreciating at a slower pace, and there are reports showing purchasing demand softening. This has some thinking we may be entering a buyers’ market after sellers have had the upper hand for the past several years. Is this really happening?

The market has definitely softened. However, according to two chief economists in the industry, we are a long way from a market that totally favors the purchaser:

Dr. Svenja Gudell, Zillow Chief Economist:

“These seller challenges don’t indicate we’re suddenly in a buyers’ market – we don’t expect market conditions to shift decidedly in favor of buyers until 2020 or later. But buyers certainly are starting to balk at the rapid rise in prices and home values are starting to grow at a less frenetic pace.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist of realtor.com:

“The signs are pointing to a market that’s shifting toward buyers. But, in most places, we’re still a long way from a full reversal.”

In addition, Pulsenomics Inc. recently surveyed over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists and asked this question:

“When do you expect U.S. housing market conditions to shift decidedly in favor of homebuyers?”

Only 5% said the market has already shifted. Here are the rest of the survey results:

Bottom Line

The market is beginning to normalize but that doesn’t mean we will quickly shift to a market favoring the buyer. We believe Ivy Zelman, author of the well-respected ‘Z’ Report, best explained the current confusion:

“With the rate of home price appreciation starting to decelerate alongside the uptick in inventory…we expect significant debate about whether this is a bullish or bearish sign.

In our view, the short-term narrative will probably be confusing, but more sustainable growth and affordability will likely be the end result."

Mortgage Interest Rates are Still Going Up… Should You Wait to Buy?

Mortgage interest rates, as reported by Freddie Mac, have increased by close to a quarter of a percent over the last several weeks. Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Realtors are all calling for mortgage rates to rise another quarter of a percent by next year.

In addition to the predictions from the four major reporting agencies mentioned above, the Federal Open Market Committee recently voted “unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate to 2.75 percent.” Historically, an increase in the primary credit rate has translated to an overall jump in mortgage interest rates as well.

This has caused some purchasers to lament the fact that they may no longer be able to get a rate below 4%. However, we must realize that current rates are still at historic lows.

Here is a chart showing the average mortgage interest rate over the last several decades:

Bottom Line

Though you may have missed the lowest mortgage rate ever offered, you can still get a better interest rate than your older brother or sister did ten years ago, a lower rate than your parents did twenty years ago, and a better rate than your grandparents did forty years ago.

How Does the Supply of Homes for Sale Impact Buyer Demand?

The price of any item is determined by the supply of that item, as well as the market’s demand for it. The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) surveys “over 50,000 real estate practitioners about their expectations for home sales, prices and market conditions” for their monthly REALTORS Confidence Index.

Their latest edition sheds some light on the relationship between seller traffic(supply) and buyer traffic (demand).

Buyer Demand

The map below was created after asking the question: “How would you rate buyer traffic in your area?”

The darker the blue, the stronger the demand for homes is in that area. The survey showed that in 38 out of 50 states buyer demand was slightly lower than this time last year but remains strong. Only six states had a ‘stable’ demand level.

Seller Supply 

The index also asked: “How would you rate seller traffic in your area?”

As you can see from the map below, 23 states reported ‘weak’ seller traffic, 22 states and Washington D.C. reported ‘stable’ seller traffic, and 5 states reported ‘strong’ seller traffic. This means there are far fewer homes on the market than what is needed to satisfy the buyers who are out looking for homes.

Bottom Line

Looking at the maps above, it is not hard to see why prices are appreciating in many areas of the country. Until the supply of homes for sale starts to meet buyer demand, prices will continue to increase. If you are debating listing your home for sale, let’s get together so I can help you capitalize on the demand in the market now!

How Much Has Your Home Increased in Value?

Home values have risen dramatically over the last twelve months. In CoreLogic’s most recent Home Price Index Report, they revealed that national home prices have increased by 6.2% year-over-year.

CoreLogic broke down appreciation even further into four price ranges, giving us a more detailed view than if we had simply looked at the year-over-year increases in national median home price.

The chart below shows the four price ranges from the report, as well as each one’s year-over-year growth from July 2017 to July 2018 (the latest data available). 

It is important to pay attention to how prices are changing in your local market. The location of your home is not the only factor which determines how much your home has appreciated over the course of the last year.

Lower-priced homes have appreciated at greater rates than homes at the upper ends of the spectrum due to demand from first-time home buyers and baby boomers looking to downsize.

Bottom Line

If you are planning to list your home for sale in today’s market, let’s get together to go over exactly what’s going on in your area and your price range.

Is the Real Estate Market Finally Getting Back to Normal?

The housing market has been anything but normal for the last eleven years. In a normal real estate market, home prices appreciate 3.7% annually. Below, however, are the price swings since 2007 according to the latest Home Price Expectation Survey:

After the bubble burst in June 2007, values depreciated 6.1% annually until February 2012. From March 2012 to today, the market has been recovering with values appreciating 6.2% annually.

These wild swings in values were caused by abnormal ratios between the available supply of inventory and buyer demand in the market. In a normal market, there would be a 6-month supply of housing inventory.

When the market hit its peak in 2007, homeowners and builders were trying to take advantage of a market that was fueled by an “irrational exuberance.”

Inventory levels grew to 7+ months. With that many homes available for sale, there weren’t enough buyers to satisfy the number of homeowners/builders trying to sell, so prices began to fall.

Then, foreclosures came to market. We eventually hit 11 months inventory which caused prices to crash until early 2012. By that time, inventory levels had fallen to 6.2 months and the market began its recovery.

Over the last five years, inventory levels have remained well below the 6-month supply needed for prices to continue to level off. As a result, home prices have increased over that time at percentages well above the appreciation levels seen in a more normal market. 

That was the past. What about the future?

We currently have about 4.5-months inventory. This means prices should continue to appreciate at above-normal levels which most experts believe will happen for the next year. However, two things have just occurred that are pointing to the fact that we may be returning to a more normal market.

1. Listing Supply is Increasing

Both existing and new construction inventory is on the rise. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors revealed that inventory has increased over the last two months after thirty-seven consecutive months of declining inventory. At the same time, building permits are also increasing which means more new construction is about to come to market. 

2. Buyer Demand is Softening

Ivy Zelman, who is widely respected as an industry expert, reported in her latest ‘Z’ Report:

 “While we continue to expect a resumption of growth in resale transactions on the back of easing inventory in 2019 and 2020, our real-time view into the market through our Real Estate Broker Survey does suggest that buyers have grown more discerning of late and a level of “pause” has taken hold in many large housing markets.

Indicative of this, our broker contacts rated buyer demand at 69 on a 0- 100 scale, still above average but down from 74 last year and representing the largest year-over-year decline in the two-year history of our survey.”

With supply increasing and demand waning, we may soon be back to a more normal real estate market. We will no longer be in a buyers’ market (like 2007-February 2012) or a sellers’ market (like March 2012- Today).

Prices won’t appreciate at the levels we’ve seen recently, nor will they depreciate. It will be a balanced market where prices remain steady, where buyers will be better able to afford a home, and where sellers will more easily be able to move-up or move-down to a home that better suits their current lifestyles.

Bottom Line

Returning to a normal market is a good thing. However, after the zaniness of the last eleven years, it might feel strange. If you are going 85 miles per hour on a road with a 60 MPH speed limit and you see a police car ahead, you’re going to slow down quickly. But, after going 85 MPH, 60 MPH will feel like you’re crawling. It is the normal speed limit, yet, it will feel strange.

That’s what is about to happen in real estate. The housing market is not falling apart. We are just returning to a more normal market which, in the long run, will be much healthier for you whether you are a buyer or a seller.

25% of Homes with a Mortgage are Now Equity Rich!

Rising home prices have been in the news a lot lately and much of the focus has been on whether home prices are accelerating too quickly, as well as how sustainable the growth in prices really is. One of the often-overlooked benefits of rising prices, however, is the impact that they have on a homeowner’s equity position.

Home equity is defined as the difference between the home’s fair market value and the outstanding balance of all liens (loans) on the property. While homeowners pay down their mortgages, the amount of equity they have in their homes climbs each time the value of their homes go up!

According to the latest Equity Report from ATTOM Data Solutions, “13.9 million U.S. properties in Q2 2018 were equity rich — where the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the property was 50 percent or less of the property’s estimated market value — representing 24.9% of all U.S. properties with a mortgage.”

This means that nearly a quarter of Americans who have a mortgage would be able to sell their homes and have a significant down payment toward their next home. Many who sell could also use their new-found equity to pay off high-interest credit cards or help children with tuition costs.

The map below shows the percentage of properties with a mortgage in each state that were equity rich in Q2 2018.

Bottom Line

If you are a homeowner looking to take advantage of your home equity by moving up to your dream home, let’s get together to discuss your options!

NAR Reports Show It’s A Great Time to Sell!

We all realize that the best time to sell anything is when the demand for that item is high and the supply of that item is limited. The last two major reports issued by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed information that suggests that right now continues to be a great time to sell your house.

Let’s look at the data covered in the latest Pending Home Sales Report and Existing Home Sales Report.

THE PENDING HOME SALES REPORT

The report announced that pending home sales (homes going into contract) are down 2.3% from last year and have continued to fall on an annual basis for seven straight months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, had this to say:

“The reason sales are falling off last year’s pace is that multiple years of inadequate supply in markets with strong job growth have finally driven up home prices to a point where an increasing number of prospective buyers are unable to afford it.”

Takeaway: Demand for housing is strong and will continue to grow in 2019. Without an influx of new listings for sale, pending home sales will continue to decline. Listing now means you will be able to take advantage of the demand currently in the market.

THE EXISTING HOME SALES REPORT

The most important data point revealed in the report was not sales-based, but was instead the inventory of homes for sale (supply). The report explained:

• Total housing inventory decreased 0.7% to 5.34 million homes available for sale in July
• This represents a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace
• Sales are now 1.5% below a year ago

There were two more interesting comments made by Yun in the report:

“Led by a notable decrease in closings in the Northeast, existing home sales trailed off again last month, sliding to their slowest pace since February 2016 at 5.21 million.”

In real estate, there is a guideline that often applies: When there is less than a 6-month supply of inventory available, we are in a seller’s market and we will see appreciation; between 6-7 months is a neutral market, where prices will increase at the rate of inflation; and more than a 7-month supply means we are in a buyer’s market and should expect depreciation in home values. As Yun notes, we are (and will remain) in a seller’s market and prices will continue to increase unless more listings come to the market.

“Listings continue to go under contract in under a month, which highlights the feedback from Realtors® that buyers are swiftly snatching up moderately-priced properties. Existing supply is still not at a healthy level, and new home construction is not keeping up to meet demand.”

Takeaway: Inventory of homes for sale is still well below the 6-month supply needed for a normal market. Prices will continue to rise if a sizable supply does not enter the market.

Bottom Line

If you are going to sell, now may be the time to take advantage of the ready, willing, and able buyers that are still out looking for your house.

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

Open House Schedules this weekend of September 8 and 9

OPEN HOUSE
📣 7605 Devins Ridge, Independence Twp 48348 on Sunday with Gayle
12 pm to 3 PM


218061113

Bridge Valley Family Resort. All on 1.5 acre lot. Estate boasts 5 bedrooms, 2 owner suites with private baths, jetted jacuzzi and showers. Two story great room with surround sound, gorgeous built ins, fieldstone gas fireplace and large windows for beautiful views of nature. Open concept kitchen perfect for entertaining. Home has granite and tile baths throughout. Customized laundry and mudd room with granite sink, cabinet and cubbies. Lower level is a finished waikout with large family room surround sound, stone gas fireplace built-in cabinetry. Full bath, ample storrage. Exterior has an in ground heated 36x18 pool with diving board. Breathless landscaping and ample yard to play. . Much, much more.



OPEN HOUSE
📣 3007 N. Vermont RO on Saturday with Leslie
3 PM to 5 PM


218075412

Immaculate Royal Oak brick bungalow in popular Red Run Heights neighborhood just blocks away from Red Run Golf Club and Red Run Park. This move-in ready 3 bedrooms home has 2 full baths, all beautifully updated in 2015. Kitchen offers granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances and ceramic floors. Beautiful hardwood floors on main level with a spacious family room that includes a gas fireplace and tons of natural light. Spacious Master bedroom has beautiful master bath and lots of closet space. Large finished basement for additional living space. Fully landscaped fenced in back yard with mature trees and large deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining. Welcome to your new home! Licensed agent must be present at all showings.



OPEN HOUSE
📣 3798 Newport Way Drive, Waterford Twp 48329 on Sunday with Steve K
12 PM to 2 PM
 

218023288

Come see this beautiful open floor plan Snug Harbour Ranch featuring 85' on All Sports LOON LAKE. Enjoy privacy and security in this private gated community. This is a perfect home for entertaining with its huge kitchen and Great Room spaces. Relax in your Master Bedroom with beautiful lake views. Your ensuite features ceramic tile, a large soaking tub and glass walk-in shower. Enjoy awesome summer activities in your FINISHED 2000+ sqft walk out basement. This space will amaze you with it's versatility and charm. Your glass block custom built bar will be enjoyed by everyone. The oversize lower level bedroom and full bath is perfect for your summer activities. Your garage is listed as a 3 car. You'll find that and much more making this space perfect for a car enthusiast.


OPEN HOUSE
📣 102 E Hickory Grove, Bloomfield on Saturday with Chris

218047895

Totally renovated in the last few years. Gorgeous new kitchen with white wood cabinets with soft close doors, quartz countertops and patterned aluminum backsplash. New laminate floor that looks like ceramic tile! Refinished, original wood floors on first floor, new carpet upstairs and in lower level, new Theratru doors and Oxbow windows. Freshly painted in soft, neutral palate. Updated baths. Upstairs bath is a European "wet room" which makes it 100% waterproof! Barrier free shower and euro modern fixtures. Three spacious bedrooms. Lower level is partially finished with small bar area and large rec. room. One car shared garage. Private rear patio. Furnace has had major overhaul, only the body is old. Amazing location!! Close to downtown Birmingham and easy access to I-75 too. Award winning Bloomfield Hills schools.




OPEN HOUSE
📣 4021 COMMERCE Road, Orchard Lake 48324 on Saturday and Sunday with Chris


218010679

Seller will entertain offers between $2,000,000 - $2,350,000. The pictures are good but you need to see this house to experience it. Overlooking the most sought after lake in Michigan, is this Aspen inspired gem. Breathtaking views of the lake from every room, the entire back of the house is glass. Spectacular unconventional design, two grand staircases with wood/iron detailing, and an elevator that goes to all 3 levels. Soaring 2 story Great Room with detailed moldings, floor to ceiling windows. Barrel roof and wood trim detailing in family room and spacious library with gorgeous Brazilian hardwood floors and 3 walls of bay windows. Amazing kitchen with Cherry LaFata cabinets, enormous granite island with second sink, SS top-of-the-line appliances including Thermador 8 burner oven/stove. Grand master suite with his/hers closets, huge bath with euro shower, separate jetted tub, his/hers vanities with space left over for a couch! Two other En-suites with walk-in closets


OPEN HOUSE
📣 175 Wimbleton, Birmingham on Sunday with Chris

12 PM to 2:PM


218011832

This 3 bedroom 2.5 bath spacious ranch overlooks the scenic Rouge River. You're within easy walking distance to all of Birmingham's amenities, Poppleton Park, the Farmer's Market (every Sunday), and even a large grocery store. Great Poppleton Park neighborhood, easy commute to downtown Detroit, less than 30 minutes. Wood floors through out and open concept spacious kitchen, living and dining area with 2 fireplaces. The home is very well insulated, low utility costs, perfect condo alternative with maintenance free landscaping including sprinkler system. 2 car attached garage. All season back porch and decks so you can sip your morning coffee or have dinner with family and friends while surrounded by nature. Handicap accessible. Updated kitchen and baths in 2003.

For more details and pictures,  here.

The Net Worth of a Homeowner is 44x Greater Than A Renter!

Every three years, the Federal Reserve conducts their Survey of Consumer Finances in which they collect data across all economic and social groups. Their latest survey data, covering 2013-2016 was recently released.

The study revealed that the median net worth of a homeowner was $231,400 – a 15% increase since 2013. At the same time, the median net worth of renters decreased by 5% ($5,200 today compared to $5,500 in 2013).

These numbers reveal that the net worth of a homeowner is over 44 times greater than that of a renter.

Owning a home is a great way to build family wealth

As we’ve said before, simply put, homeownership is a form of ‘forced savings.’ Every time you pay your mortgage, you are contributing to your net worth by increasing the equity in your home.

That is why, for the fifth year in a row, Gallup reported that Americans picked real estate as the best long-term investment. This year’s results showed that 34% of Americans chose real estate, followed by stocks at 26% and then gold, savings accounts/CDs, or bonds.

Greater equity in your home gives you options

If you want to find out how you can use the increased equity in your home to move to a home that better fits your current lifestyle, let’s get together to discuss the process.

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not 
intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. 
does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information 
or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment 
advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and 
obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping 
Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your 
reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed? This Winter? Next Year?

The interest rate you pay on your home mortgage has a direct impact on your monthly payment. The higher the rate the greater the payment will be. That is why it is important to look at where rates are headed when deciding to buy now or wait until next year.

Below is a chart created using Freddie Mac’s October 2015 U.S. Economic & Housing Marketing Outlook. As you can see interest rates are projected to increase steadily over the course of the next 12 months.

How Will This Impact Your Mortgage Payment?

Depending on the amount of the loan that you secure, a half of a percent (.5%) increase in interest rate can increase your monthly mortgage payment significantly.

According to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index, national home prices have appreciated 6.4% from this time last year and are predicted to be 4.7% higher next year.

If both the predictions of home price and interest rate increases become reality, families would wind up paying considerably more for their next home.

Bottom Line

Even a small increase in interest rate can impact your family’s wealth. Let's meet to evaluate your ability to purchase your dream home.

Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed? This Winter? Next Year?

The interest rate you pay on your home mortgage has a direct impact on your monthly payment. The higher the rate the greater the payment will be. That is why it is important to look at where rates are headed when deciding to buy now or wait until next year.

Below is a chart created using Freddie Mac’s October 2015 U.S. Economic & Housing Marketing Outlook. As you can see interest rates are projected to increase steadily over the course of the next 12 months.

How Will This Impact Your Mortgage Payment?

Depending on the amount of the loan that you secure, a half of a percent (.5%) increase in interest rate can increase your monthly mortgage payment significantly.

According to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index, national home prices have appreciated 6.4% from this time last year and are predicted to be 4.7% higher next year.

If both the predictions of home price and interest rate increases become reality, families would wind up paying considerably more for their next home.

Bottom Line

Even a small increase in interest rate can impact your family’s wealth. Let's meet to evaluate your ability to purchase your dream home.

Why Aren’t Millennials Buying Homes More Frequently?

Selling your Southeast Michigan home? Get a home value report.

Buying a Southeast Michigan home? Get full MLS access. 

One thing we know for certain about the real estate market is that it is never going to stay the same for long. Today we want to talk about an interesting trend we’ve noticed in real estate: millennials are waiting longer to purchase their first homes than their parents did.

The typical first-time buyer now rents for an average of 6 years before buying a home, which is up from 2.6 years in the early 1970’s, according to Zillow.

We came across this great video from CNBC. I will give you my three biggest takeaways from the article.

1. Down payments are a huge factor

Renters in today’s market are struggling to save for down payments and qualify for mortgages. Most first-time buyers still depend on personal savings for at least some of their down payments, but rising rental prices have complicated the task of socking away money for a down payment.

2. Rising rental rates are complicating things as well

Rental rates are causing 46% of renters aged 25-34, to spend more than 40% of their incomes on rent, up from 30% a decade earlier.

3. Job security is important to millennial buyers

The Money Source, a mortgage lender, examined applications from 5,404 millennial buyers and found that these buyers averaged nearly 4.5 years in their field of work and had held their current job for slightly more than three years. Those figures point to how critical career stability is to a younger generation.

Where Is the Southeast Michigan Market Heading?

Selling your Southeast Michigan home? Get a home value report.

Buying a Southeast Michigan home? Get full MLS access. 

Hello, and welcome back! Today, we share the latest trends and conditions for the Southeast Michigan real estate market!

We have good news to report for our area. The number of homes under contract is up 10% for the month of May over May of 2014. Additionally, the days on market is down 5%!

What does this mean for you?

For starters, we have more buyers in the Southeast Michigan market and it's taking less time to sell than it did during the same time period last year. Also, values and price per square foot are up 6% over April of last year! In short, now is a pretty great time to consider putting your home on the market!

If you have any questions about conditions in your particular area, or if you need real estate assistance of any kind, give us a call or shoot us a quick email. We would love to hear from you!